Working papers

Every working paper, including those with a published journal version.

Cashless payments and consumer spending

with Martin Brown, Yves Nacht and Helmut Stix

SNB Working Paper 2023-06

We examine how payment choice affects discretionary spending for a representative sample of consumers. Our analysis is motivated by a model of intertemporal choice in which intramonth liquidity constraints are endogenously determined by payment choice and cash management. In the model, present-biased consumers overspend if they choose to pay by card, as their spending is not limited by the amount of cash at hand. Our empirical analysis is based on matched payment diary, payment methods and behavioral survey data. We find that present- biased consumers spend more, the more often they use cashless payment instruments. The effect of cashless payments on spending is strong both for low- and high-income consumers but not among young consumers. We find no robust evidence that consumers choose cash payments to self-constrain their spending.

BibTeX
@techreport{brown_nacht_nellen_stix2023,
  author      = {Brown, Martin and Nacht, Yves and Nellen, Thomas and Stix, Helmut},
  title       = {Cashless payments and consumer spending},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2023-06},
  year        = {2023}
}

Intraday liquidity around the world

with B. Alexandrova-Kabadjova and 18 others

BIS Working Paper 1089

We study intraday liquidity usage and its determinants using a unique cross-country data set on large-value payments. We document that the amount of intraday liquidity that financial institutions around the world use each day equals, on average, 15% of their total daily payment values or 2.8% of their countries' GDP. We then define and calculate system-level measures of liquidity efficiency and inequality in liquidity provision. We show that these measures vary systematically with the degree of payment coordination among payment system participants, the quantity and opportunity cost of central bank reserves and institutional characteristics, such as incentives for early payment submission and liquidity saving mechanism (LSM) design. Our results are consistent with the notion that payment system participants behave strategically and manage intraday liquidity actively. Participants also appear to condition their payment behaviour on specific LSM characteristics, which may weaken some of the LSMs' intended effects.

BibTeX
@techreport{alexandrova2023,
  author      = {Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana and others},
  title       = {Intraday liquidity around the world},
  institution = {Bank for International Settlements},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {1089},
  year        = {2023}
}

The rise of digital watchers

with Till Ebner and Jörn Tenhofen

SNB Working Paper 2021-01

Many consumers use payment instruments to control their budget. Previously, such behavior has been associated with checking disposable cash ("pocket watching"). Based on recent survey data, we show that "digital watchers" have emerged, i.e., noncash payers who use digital applications to control their budget. Both watcher types have distinct characteristics. Pocket watchers tend to have lower incomes than other consumers, while digital watchers ascribe low security risk to payment cards. Watching behavior influences current and future payment behaviors. Pocket watchers use cash more intensively than nonwatching cash payers. Digital watchers expect to intensify their reliance on noncash payment instruments more strongly than nonwatching noncash payers.

BibTeX
@techreport{ebner_nellen_tenhofen2021,
  author      = {Ebner, Till and Nellen, Thomas and Tenhofen, J{\"o}rn},
  title       = {The rise of digital watchers},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2021-01},
  year        = {2021}
}

Covid-19 and regional shifts in Swiss retail payments

with Sébastien Kraenzlin and Christoph Meyer

SNB Working Paper 2020-15

This paper analyzes card payments to the retail sector in Switzerland during the COVID-19 crisis. We provide evidence on aggregate effects and regional shifts. Pronounced shifts - which persisted post-lockdown - can be observed from urban to suburban and rural areas and among cantons. Data allow us to identify directly two sources of shifts: "tourists and business travelers," and "e-commerce." We indirectly identify additional sources: infection risk, lockdown measures, working from home, shopping tourism, and cash substitution. The COVID-19 crisis seems to have reinforced pre-existing trends that may have faster than anticipated effects on the economy. Our analysis underscores the usefulness of real-time card payment data to inform policy makers.

BibTeX
@techreport{kraenzlin_meyer_nellen2020wp,
  author      = {Kraenzlin, S{\'e}bastien and Meyer, Christoph and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Covid-19 and regional shifts in {S}wiss retail payments},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2020-15},
  year        = {2020}
}

Confederation debt management since 1970

with Basil Guggenheim and Mario Meichle

SNB Working Paper 2018-07

This paper presents new data vintages on marketable debt emissions and total outstanding debt. The data are used to analyze the Swiss Confederation’s issuing behavior and debt management. Issuing behavior became more regular and demand-oriented during the early 1990s. The Treasury actively manages roll-over risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt to GDP levels. Furthermore, the Treasury engages in active but asymmetric, one-sided interest rate positioning. In other words, the Treasury uses only bonds to affect debt maturity and does so only when the interest rate environment is favorable to lock-in interest rates by issuing longer-term bonds.

BibTeX
@techreport{guggenheim_meichle_nellen2018wp,
  author      = {Guggenheim, Basil and Meichle, Mario and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Confederation debt management since 1970},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2018-07},
  year        = {2018}
}

Securitisation, loan growth and bank funding: the Swiss experience since 1932

with Jonas Meuli and Thomas Nitschka

SNB Working Paper 2016-18

This paper empirically analyses securitisation in Switzerland from a macroeconomic and bank balance sheet perspective based on a novel and near-comprehensive data set on a specific form of securitisation over the sample period from 1932 to 2014. The Swiss Pfandbrief is a distinct covered bond with a similar institutional framework as the U.S. Federal Home Loan Bank System.

BibTeX
@techreport{meuli_nellen_nitschka2016wp,
  author      = {Meuli, Jonas and Nellen, Thomas and Nitschka, Thomas},
  title       = {Securitisation, loan growth and bank funding: the {S}wiss experience since 1932},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2016-18},
  year        = {2016}
}

Collateralised liquidity, two-part tariff and settlement coordination

single-authored

SNB Working Paper 2015-13

This paper analyses the liquidity management game played in payment systems with free but collateralised intraday credit facilities, under the assumption that settlement risk is the driving force. Settlement equilibria are found to depend on the combination of the intraday liquidity facilities' design and the collateral policy applied by the central bank. The effectiveness of a two-part tariff in coordinating on early settlement depends on the same factors. Model predictions are consistent with stylised facts from a comparison of settlement behaviour in the Swiss Interbank Clearing and Fedwire funds.

BibTeX
@techreport{nellen2015wp,
  author      = {Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Collateralised liquidity, two-part tariff and settlement coordination},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2015-13},
  year        = {2015}
}

The collateral costs of clearing

with Cyril Monnet

SNB Working Paper 2014-04

In this working paper, we study the three generic clearing arrangements in the presence of two-sided limited commitment: simple bilateral clearing, segregated collateral clearing through a third party, and - most sophisticated of all - central counterparty (CCP) clearing. Clearing secures the settlement of obligations from over-the-counter (OTC) forward contracts that smooth the income of risk-averse agents. Clearing requires collateral to guarantee settlement; this is costly, as it reduces income from investment. While welfare is greater under more sophisticated clearing arrangements, we find that these are also more demanding in terms of collateral.

BibTeX
@techreport{monnet_nellen2014wp,
  author      = {Monnet, Cyril and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {The collateral costs of clearing},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2014-04},
  year        = {2014}
}

Does SIC need a heart pacemaker?

with Robert Oleschak

SNB Working Paper 2013-10

Real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems effect final settlement of payments continuously and on an individual basis. This generates a trade-off between liquidity needs and settlement delay. Against the background of reconstruction discussions, the paper analyses whether more advanced algorithms reduce liquidity needs and settlement delay if applied to the Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC) system. Simulations run with the BoF-PSS2 simulator show that expected reductions in liquidity needs and settlement delay are modest and should carefully be evaluated against costs. More advanced settlement algorithms improve settlement efficiency only if payment release behaviour is highly aligned.

BibTeX
@techreport{oleschak_nellen2013wp,
  author      = {Oleschak, Robert and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Does {SIC} need a heart pacemaker?},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2013-10},
  year        = {2013}
}

Access policy and money market segmentation

with Sébastien Kraenzlin

SNB Working Paper 2012-12

We analyse deviations between interest rates paid in the Swiss franc unsecured money market and the respective Libor rate. First, banks that have access to the secured interbank market and the SNB's monetary policy operations pay less than banks without access. Second, domestically unchartered, foreign banks pay more than domestic banks. We find that these segmentations are limited both during normal times and during the financial crisis starting 2007 thanks to open access to the secured interbank market and the SNB's monetary policy operations. These findings reveal that a neglected aspect of monetary policy implementation matters, namely access policy.

BibTeX
@techreport{kraenzlin_nellen2012wp,
  author      = {Kraenzlin, S{\'e}bastien and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Access policy and money market segmentation},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2012-12},
  year        = {2012}
}

Interoperability between central counterparties

with Jürg Mägerle

SNB Working Paper 2011-12

In reaction to recent requests for interoperability between central counterparties of European stock markets, regulators have issued new guidelines to contain systemic risk. Our analysis confirms that the currently applied cross-CCP risk management model can be a source of contagion, particularly if applied in multilateral frameworks. While regulators' new guidelines eliminate systemic risk, this comes at the cost of an inefficiently overcollateralised clearing system. We discuss further approaches that contain systemic risk while reducing or eliminating overcollateralisation. Interoperability is of economic importance as it may contribute to the efficiency and safety of a worldwide fragmented clearing infrastructure.

BibTeX
@techreport{magerle_nellen2011wp,
  author      = {M{\"a}gerle, J{\"u}rg and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Interoperability between central counterparties},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2011-12},
  year        = {2011}
}

Daytime is money

with Sébastien Kraenzlin

SNB Working Paper 2010-06

Based on real-time trade data from the Swiss franc overnight interbank repo market and SIX Interbank Clearing (SIC) - the Swiss real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system - we are able to gain valuable insights on the daytime value of money and its determinants: First, an implicit hourly interbank interest rate can be derived from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate. We thereby provide evidence that an implicit intraday money market exists. Second, we show that after the introduction of the foreign exchange settlement system CLS the value of intraday liquidity has increased during the hours of the CLS settlement cycle. Third, the turnover as well as the liquidity in SIC influence the intraday rate correspondingly. These facts provide evidence for the cost of immediacy. Features like RTGS, delivery-versus-payment and payment-versus-payment substitute credit risk with liquidity risk which in turn increases the value of intraday liquidity. The analysis is central bank policy relevant insofar as different designs of intraday liquidity facilities and different collateral policies result in different intraday term structures for the overnight money market.

BibTeX
@techreport{kraenzlin_nellen2010wp,
  author      = {Kraenzlin, S{\'e}bastien and Nellen, Thomas},
  title       = {Daytime is money},
  institution = {Swiss National Bank},
  type        = {Working Paper},
  number      = {2010-06},
  year        = {2010}
}